Sino-Japanese war: explicitly tell the United States to use nuclear weapons

Local time on February 2, 2013, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office after the first visit to Okinawa, the inspection of the Air Self-Defense Force base in Naha in Naha, Okinawa Prefecture, to encourage about 700 land, sea and air SDF pays to look forward to. (Source: CFP)

Nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands in Japan and triggered a new wave of Sino-Japanese conflict, the biggest difference is that China changed the passive response to the dilemma in the past, frequently take the initiative to make moves, and has formed the sea, land and air rights situation, can be regarded as the first times occupy the initiative in the conflict.

However, in the Japanese machine in the waters of the Diaoyu Islands confrontation ---- when both sides only ten meters away, it also raised the concerns of the world "misfires", even worried about the formation of a full-scale Sino-Japanese War.

World war concerns are not unfounded. Historically, this nation has always been gamblers desperate adventure mentality, considers necessary, have the courage to attack the way to the overall strength far better than its national challenges. Sino-Japanese War, the Russo-Japanese War and the Pacific War. Therefore, we must not underestimate the strong irrational national character of the Japanese nation. To mention the fact that Japan is in the most difficult period since World War II, and never run, its strength is rapidly shrinking, the country was filled with pessimism, anxiety mentality.

Shinzo Abe scored twice as prime minister again, in order to cope with the economic crisis, came up the amount of up to € 175 billion stimulus plan: half from Tokyo last issue of government bonds. Japan debt-GDP ratio has already more than 200%, ranks first in the world. Japan's Budget today, half from issuing treasury bonds. As noted Agence France-Presse: Abe's economic stimulus plan in the Western countries mainly to the reduction in fiscal spending policy response to the economic crisis, it is particularly risky.

In fact, this kind of adventure, is precisely the normal expression of the Japanese nation gamblers mentality. True in the world would have to worry about is if this economic adventure fails, the consequences? After all, Japan does not need infrastructure construction, it plans to build a bridge to connect the two deserts, the dam not built into the engine, or simply the construction of a highway no way out. By then, the Diaoyu Islands will become a breakthrough out of the crisis in Japan?

So when we see Abe 2010 National Defense Program Outline "and" medium-term defense force preparedness plan "to increase defense funding, expansion of the Self-Defense Forces, is not surprising.

Second, the rapid development of China and Japan's shrinking national strength. 2010 China's GDP surpassed Japan for the first time, just two years, Japan's total GDP dropped to about 60% of China ---- To know the maximum total amount of Japan's GDP had reached 71% in the United States. At this rate continues, a decade later, Japan I am afraid of China is the only a fraction.

Between countries rely on strength to speak. Sino-Japanese national strength if the disparity to what extent, Japan will lose the right to speak for all the problems of the day. Japan in order to keep the Diaoyu Islands or the best interests of the Diaoyu Islands dispute, can only be a showdown with China as soon as possible. In fact, this is also the South China Sea countries the same thinking.

Third, after the Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations, the two sides shelve the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands is actually reached a tacit understanding. However, the establishment of diplomatic relations for decades, but time and again the implementation of the policy of nibbling the plot small step into the big step, the steady expansion of the actual control of the Diaoyu Islands. This time, nationalization, but a greater pace. To put it plainly, erode the policy is the national policy of Japan on the Diaoyu Islands, North Korea, Northeast China and then can be said almost exactly the same. Regardless of What counter-measures: passive pay, take initiative, Japan will not change that set policy. In this sense, the two sides sooner or later, will one day head collision, conflict is inevitable. That being the case, the sooner the showdown naturally the more beneficial to Japan.

Finally, the Japanese consider themselves international environment in its favor. First, the United States strategic eastward shift of China as the number one competitor. Diaoyu Islands issue, the United States has repeatedly claimed that the US-Japan Security Treaty applies to the Diaoyu Islands. After all, the United States and Japan want the emergency appears to interfere with or interrupt the process of China's rise: or intensification of China's internal contradictions, or a foreign war. This allows us to understand why "Southern Weekend" New Year message events, the most active of the United States and Japan in overseas most active support for the so-called dissidents, the United States and Japan (but it seems these dissidents do not understand and Japanese's intention).

International environment favorable to Japan, one of the reasons is that it is part of the West, have the same values ​​and interests, in the event of conflict, Japan is not isolated, at least morally. Now, the British "Economist" has leaked, if the Diaoyu Islands war, China is certainly provocative. Preconceptions and judgment without trial, apparently related to the integration of Western interests.

In fact, from a practical point of view, the Western-style democracy is increasingly becoming the primary risk of promoting war. Especially before and after elections or rulers support downturn. 2012 is the the the global election year, can be described as the most. The United States to the election, and blurt fierce attack his country. France is to launch a war on two fronts. First, before the election, against Libya, the first post-election against Mali. After the war, the support of the rulers are rising rapidly.

This time, Hollande took office six months has become president since 1981 not to be trusted, the public support rate of only 36%. Waging war, the support rate rapidly big reversal to rise to 63%. Not only that, sent troops to Mali Hollande successfully transfer the focus of domestic dispute. For example, enhance the rich tax controversy and was dismissed by the Constitutional Court as well as the ruling party pressure to promote the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Relative to the hard country to win popular support, waging war called both simple and efficient way, which a political figure able to resist that temptation? So, in 2012, the same election, Japan and South Korea have also on the territorial issue to make a big fuss.

Of course, from the perspective of the so-called pure rational speaking, occurred in full-scale war is unlikely.

From China's perspective, the Chinese nation has always been rich, self-sufficiency, the traditional lack of external expansion of power, more disdain in foreign territory. Though he considers himself culture leading the incarnation of human civilization, but the history, there has never been a national acts out active output Confucianism neighboring countries (of course welcome to learn automatically). Zheng He's voyages, neither output values, nor plundering the wealth, not their personal behavior, but the characteristics of the Chinese nation dictates. Eastern Han scholars He points to break a word can be described as the traditional concept: "the king where he died barbarians.

Secondly, the war always adopted a very cautious attitude. Thousands of years ago, "The Art of War" sermon: "soldiers, affairs of state, the land of life and death, survival of the Road, can not be aware of". And also has a clear understanding of the consequences of war: "The master must not anger and Xing Shi will may not resentful while DuiGongZhan. Anger can be complex hi bland can be complex, subjugation may not longer exist, the dead can not be resurrected so the Ming main cautious of good police and the Yasukuni whole army of the Road ". ---- If this wisdom in the rise of Japan, also will not eventually reduced to the become an atomic bombings, until today, the U.S. military occupation of the country. The United States also has the 911 Chinese wisdom, and also will not be bogged down in the quagmire and economic crisis.

Third, from a realistic point of view, the highest national interests to achieve modernization. Since 1840, the life and death of Autumn, China has repeatedly Reform Ziqiang, an attempt to move toward modernization. Results twice interrupted by the Japanese invasion. The reform and opening up as a symbol of the modern movement, is by far the effectiveness of the largest and closest to success. Clearly, China is also very much like to have a stable and secure international environment, and not allow a repeat of the tragedy in history. Moreover, China is facing the challenges of the middle-income trap ---- you know, the sixties of the last century, more than one hundred countries at this stage, successfully crossed Only thirteen countries. Taking into account the size of the Chinese population and the weight of tradition, its difficult to imagine.

Of course, China also understand that time on their side. Now is not the best and the timing of Japan's showdown. With the disparity of the difference in strength between the two countries, to Japan maybe quit, to subdue the enemy without fighting. At least, to which China has more tools to deal with the Japanese, but not necessarily higher costs and risks of war.

From Japan's point of view, the same factors exist to avoid war. First, Japan is now speed rightist, but still have not reached the status of World War II militarism. Equally strong domestic anti-war voices.

Second, as World War II, a defeated nation, Japan, and now is not the "normal" state of a fully independent sovereign. Diplomatic, economic or military, the final determination of the right or the hands in the United States. Of course, such a decision to the performance of the right way. For example, when Japan's economic growth is a threat to U.S. interests, the United States has come up with a Plaza Accord forced Japan into submission. When Noboru Takeshita and go too close to the damage to U.S. interests, the United States took long ago mastered evidence of corruption thrown through their media, be ousted. Sino-Japanese relations upward momentum immediately stagnation. Hatoyama advocates "off the United States into" become the 21st century, the most short-lived Japanese prime minister, is not without reason.

So whether Japan on the Diaoyu Islands issue and China go to war, does not depend on Japan, but depends on the United States.

It should be said that the Sino-Japanese friction and confrontation in line with the interests of the United States: either continue firmly to Japan tied himself more to become a bargaining chip, and China (and North Korea to become a bargaining chip in China and the United States). And the United States has always pursued a balance of power strategy: World War II, Japan's strong on joint fight against Japan. Now China is strong, combined with Japan to contain China ---- U.S. allies in Asia, Japan is the only country to contain China's weight. The day round showdown that do not conform to the interests of the United States.

First, regardless of who wins the victory, the Asian balance of power will be broken, there will certainly be a superpower. China wins, to say the least. Japan wins from this to make it to get rid of the control of the United States to become a normal country, the leading Asian. Had eaten Japanese a lot of hardship in the history of the United States, clearly know which country is more dangerous.

Economically, China and Japan were the world's second and third largest economies, the United States, the second largest creditor. These two countries the event of full-scale war will be a devastating blow to the global economy. This is the West in terms of economic crisis, it is able to bear. As for the U.S., China and Japan selling U.S. Treasury bonds to support the war, just stop buying U.S. unimaginable disaster. After all, the U.S. government today every flower, every U.S. dollars, of which nearly half came from debt.

Third, China is a nuclear weapons state. Sino-Japanese war, once full-blown (not local), the United States no matter for allies moral responsibility (to comply with the treaty), or the maintenance of global dominance (sit back and watch Japan was defeated by the Chinese, and its global allies will lose the trust of its), must be involved in ---- the history of human civilization will be an unprecedented scene: the world's top three economies to a small island and conflict.

But since the since the invention of nuclear weapons, nuclear states have never happened War ---- because this is a victors of the war. The United States will never be so foolish as to the interest of the Japanese and Chinese conflict for Japan and bloodshed. This is why, when the Diaoyu Islands dispute intensified, the United States finally come out to put pressure on both sides, trying to cool down. Hillary Clinton claimed: The United States does not want any party to take any action that may lead to tension or a miscarriage of justice on this issue, and hope to see China and Japan to resolve the Diaoyu Islands dispute through peaceful dialogue.

Of course, as the allies of Japan, the United States also "opposed to any unilateral actions that undermine Japan's administrative jurisdiction secretly directed at China. Japan and favoritism on the surface to both the practice of pressure, analyzed from the perspective of international reality undoubtedly pressure only. Because, not truly independent countries, Japan had to buy the U.S. account, but not necessarily. And the real purpose of the United States not to support Japan, but avoid really showdown.

In addition to the natural threat posed by the rise of the West (natural, unintentional threats by either party, but all are limited, China has more, others less naturally such as resources, such as mode of legitimacy ), the West is facing multiple challenges: First, the economic crisis, the extreme Islamic forces and the spread of international terrorism (take a look at the Mali a war triggered retaliation), Iran and North Korea nuclear issue, First Russian. The western address these challenges are already stretched to the limit, if involved in the Sino-Japanese war, regardless of the victory of the war, is bound to seriously weakened. Which will benefit the most are struggling to stop another opponent Russia (Russia, too, does not stand on the war, the longer the fight, the United States have higher losses, the more the price of oil skyrocketing. Mention Russia is also worried that if Japan victory China will inevitably 剑指 the four northern islands). Islamic extremists will seize this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity comprehensive attack, Iran, North Korea will be logical to enter the club of nuclear countries. Western will face is full of chaos. This scene is the West even unthinkable.

Therefore, as long as the Chinese really have the right to decide and the United States do not want to resort to war, the Sino-Japanese conflict around the Diaoyu Islands will not upgrade to a war level.

Nevertheless, taking into account the lessons of history, the democratic system of Japanese nationals, increasing the risk of conflict, the future strength of the Chinese and Japanese contrast too fast shift, does not exclude the possibility of Japan once again take the risk. After all, from a rational point of view, the First World War is not supposed to happen ---- United Kingdom and Germany have too many common economic interests, who can not imagine that the two sides will fight each other; After all, during World War II in Japan and China war and has evolved into a protracted war, who could not think Japan will come back even powerful America went to war.

In addition, even if the party did not want war, but if in the current confrontation between the means of escape phenomenon, the power of public opinion between the two sides is the same war become a reality.

Now show tough and global diplomacy, the Japanese Prime Minister Abe finally proposed to meet with Chinese leaders for peace talks. Whether Abe is forced by the reality of the dilemma, or smoke bomb (Japan is in peace talks with the United States during the attack), he should understand that the issue of sovereignty is no solution. Japan can not accept China's conditions: either abandon nationalization, or recognition of the sovereignty dispute, or agree with the Sino-Japanese condominium, not to unilaterally make concessions. Which Mody peace talks can only do to the world, to show Japan's so-called peace sincerity. Of course, there may be, is designated a no matter what happens, not to resort to force by the bottom line.

For China, is decisive and Japan do not want to at this point, rational analysis, a high degree of vigilance (This is an attack on the country by nature must also be made to Japan, since it can attack the United States on Sunday, why can not the Chinese New Year during the attack it?), preparing for full war.

It should be said, more to prepare for war, Japan, Vietnam did not dare to act rashly, the more they can achieve peace. China made never openly declared war on the initiative to win the support of the international community, have to clear through diplomatic channels to tell the United States, if Japan launched a similar attack on Pearl Harbor provocation, China is bound to use all means to fight back (between the lines everyone knows: the use of nuclear weapons) ---- for Pearl Harbor and the shame experienced and Japan's tragic confrontation and eventually invested in the atomic bomb the Japanese head of the United States, it is not difficult to find understanding and empathy. With the bottom line, I believe that either Japan or the United States will stop doing so immediately.

The reason why China needs such a high alert, go all out, because once a war on, this is a not afford to lose the war. If defeated in today's international environment, not to mention modern the extent that it is no longer possible, is the country may be on this disintegration: various separatist forces will defeat Western support succeeded.

Japan likely to replace China as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. While victory is equal to two decades earlier to win the world leadership in China, cross-strait reunification will be put on the agenda. Perhaps the image of Chairman Mao's words can be summarized countermeasures in China: strategic contempt for the enemy, the enemy tactical importance.