Five cases of the Sino-US nuclear war

Sino-Japanese maritime conflict in full swing, the Sino-US nuclear war is likely to occur?

United States, "Atlantic Monthly" website article title: The United States and China, the most likely cause of accidental nuclear war five ways (of the journal, deputy editor Max Fisher)

Global Security News Agency and nuclear weapons Initiative Organization issued a disturbing report said, in the last years of close, but not the outcome of the dialogue, the United States and China are still unable to understand each other's nuclear weapons policy. The United States and China are each other do not have any interest in any type of war (nuclear war, or non-nuclear war). In contrast, the greater the risk of accidental war.

US-accident involved the nightmare of war there are many possible ways, Here are five of the most likely way.

First, China or the Philippines occupied a disputed island. Many islands here are either rich in natural resources, or significant control of the South China Sea (one of the world's most important waterways) or both. In the end, who owns which islands were also not clear. U.S. efforts to establish a dispute settlement mechanism, so that the Pacific Rim countries to the peaceful settlement of the conflict on disputed islands. However, confusion, greed or domestic politics always has prompted one of the three Sino-US Philippine reckless act. In Philippine conflict quickly and are not expected to upgrade, the Philippines may remind the United States signed a mutual defense treaty between them. The threat of war in the Philippines also may evolve into the threat of war in China and the United States.

Second, the inter-Korean war. Regardless of how it all began, the Chinese may feel necessary intervention. In any case, the Chinese suddenly hundreds of thousands of troops deployed to the direction of the Korean Peninsula will panic Seoul and Tokyo can not predict what may occur next. This is to keep up with the 1950s Korean War almost evolved to war in the United States and is somewhat similar. If such a situation from happening again, nuclear weapons and the existence of uncertainty include (the United States has Korea under its nuclear umbrella ") will only make the situation more volatile.

Third, China-Japan maritime escalation of the conflict. Last year, the Japanese seized an approximation of the captain of the Chinese fishing boats in Japan too. The reaction so intense so quickly after Japan held a large-scale military exercises to simulate the possible Chinese invasion of the southwestern islands,. Is not difficult to envision the sort of event escalation and eventually out of control. Japan and South Korea, has been officially included in the U.S. nuclear umbrella. Whether Japan that it has nuclear weapons of the United States as a backup? Whether the United States can not help but exaggerate it willingness to use nuclear weapons in Japan, in order to deter China?

Fourth, China or India, the occupation of the disputed territory. India's domestic politics is increasingly influenced by nationalist sentiment, the leaders of the rise of Chinese power, a sense of insecurity. Is not difficult to envision a eccentric Indian politicians or tension generals tried to pre-emptive strike to prevent the imagined Chinese invasion of the disputed territory. The United States as a close ally of India is likely to have to step in - as it used to be involved in the India-Pakistan conflict. However, this may exacerbate unrest, so the greater the risk of loss of control of the situation.

Fifth, the escalation of the conflict in Southeast Asia. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand have advocated nationalist political forces, they may sometimes be overly mesmerized by border disputes and regional competition. It now appears that none of them prepared for war, but with the economic and political development of these countries in the coming decades, this situation may change. If some small competition evolved into a war, China may feel forced to intervene. The United States is trying to establish his position as Southeast Asia dispute arbiter, perhaps it will choose to intervene. If a full-scale war in the region, China and the United States are likely to fall into them.

If the United States and China want to avoid a nuclear war, they need to strengthen is exactly this: the clear position of mutual understanding, and if you can not trust each other, then at least to trust each other's motives and intentions. The next few decades, the above five is likely to appear. How things evolve, will depend largely on the United States and China are now able to lay the basis of what.