Constraint on China: Obama holding a five ace

The Obama hands of constraining 5 cards

In essence, the Chinese people and Americans belong to mankind on the planet. But on the way of thinking, they seemed to belong to the different areas of the animal. The difference about this way of thinking, as early as 100 years ago, Li Hongzhang sharply talked about. And the United States in 1896, a time when the Chinese Ming Chuan just emerging as when the world's largest economy, to Li Hongzhang visit to the United States. Descendants of a group of missionaries in China, he put forward the Sino-US What are the different problems around. The Lee people by virtue of their understanding of China and the world without hesitation replied: We Chinese people believe in Do unto others, do not impose on others; already Yuli standing already seeks up Zuxun, whereas Americans believe Yourself Want will be imposed on the person; law of the jungle, survival of the fittest.

Although the descendants of Li Hongzhang mostly negative in nature, but in the understanding of this problem, his opinion is quite profound. 100 years, China and the United States is in accordance with this philosophy of doing things for mutual exchanges. Viewed in isolation, the two kinds of philosophy itself is neither good or bad, because they are rooted in each different historical and cultural backgrounds.

However, the behavior of this concept, to be reflected in the diplomatic relations between the two countries, a strong contrast appeared. For example, American the external military strategy of "pre-emptive" and spared no effort to pursue the goal of leading the world, and we performed the national defense policy of "active defense" and vowed to "never seek hegemony"; U.S. leaders before the trip as possible contradiction between the manufacturing and respondents States or tension between negotiations force the opponent concessions, our leaders before the trip to make every effort to create a good atmosphere for the smooth progress to meeting with the heads of between ...

That is why in the Sino-US relations in the United States always seems to be in the active position of the cards or look for a job the root cause. Regardless of who served as President of the United States since 1979, since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and also in terms of a certain stage of the tendency of the U.S. government policy toward China is contact, containment or engagement plus containment in its relations with China, the United States has never changed a is that it will from time to time to create some "trouble".

Over the past 30 years or so, Obama is also the case in the second term in the next four years. At this point, need to fully mentally prepared.

Making trouble, must find reasons roulette is called "chips" or "brand". Well, quite a long time in the future, the United States in its relations with China actually what are available "brand"? U.S. "brand" whether or not to follow the law? This article below will talk about these two issues.

The hands of the United States available in 5 "card"

China and the United States in the social, political, historical and cultural differences, have a wide range of contacts in terms of economy, education, and international issues, which determines the United States can be very easily find dealing with China can be called "brand "tool. If you want to list, this list will be very long. Based on both the current national conditions, in particular, China is rapidly emerging reality, those most likely to need them the "brand" classification can be summarized as follows:

First, the economic card. Needed the card on the table in a different form or appearance, and that the exchange rate issue, anti-dumping and anti-subsidy issues, intellectual property issues, the high-tech product lock-up problem, the problem of economic espionage or TPP free trade area in the Asia-Pacific since. Obama's first term when play this card.

Second, the military card. Consists of three main aspects. On the one hand is held military exercises or joint military exercises with China's neighboring countries; second aspect is to consolidate existing military bases, and on this basis to achieve the upgrading of equipment and weapons; the other hand, is to strengthen the military alliance with the neighboring countries of China relations , such as the United States and Japan, the U.S. and South Korea and the US-Australia military alliance. In the past four years, the United States this card hit the extreme, its global military center of gravity has been successfully transferred to the Asia-Pacific region.

Third, the values ​​card. Human rights issues, the matter of religion and freedom is its three faces. Because for decades the United States to deal with China with little success by playing this card, Obama in the past four years, basically did not how to get them to say things, and Hillary Clinton's efforts to promote Internet freedom merely in the mouth.

Fourth, the United Front license. Surrounding the use of in China, such as the East China Sea and South China Sea territorial border disputes differentiation, the collapse of the neighboring countries of China in the dependence of the economy and other aspects of building a China united front. Playing on the table is the banner of democracy, the use of the form of the conclusion of partnership. Recently, Japan has followed the booing huh "values ​​diplomacy" in Southeast Asian countries, the aim of course is not the same with the United States, belong to the tactical level, mainly want to move out of the impasse in relations with China.

Fifth, the separatist forces licenses. Arms sales to Taiwan to manufacture in China ethnic separatist forces on both sides of the Taiwan Strait tensions, by meeting with the Dalai Lama or hot Kadeer and his ilk support.

How the cards?

To learn how to use the hand is in the United States in its relations with China, it should first know that the United States for quite some time in the future, global and China what the strategic objectives. Simply put, the U.S. global strategic objective is to consolidate as long as possible and to maintain its leadership of the world, that the hegemony of the Chinese saying; China strategic objectives is to prevent and stop China in regional and global economic , political and military challenges in the field of leadership or hegemony.

Next, we can make a basic judgment, that is: as long as the development of China or any move threatened or about to threaten the global or regional leadership of the United States to destabilize its hegemony, it will not hesitate to use any means to stop ; China's development and any move is not of such a nature, that is running in the United States control of the track, and that it's response of course, very different.

All in all, the United States has both the purposes contact containment or engagement plus containment policy toward China, its core is to ensure that the Chinese placed their hands and will not be derailed. As for which a card or what few cards at a time to play and how to play, depending on the specific changes of the two sides in the situation, and follows several principles.

Through strategic friction to shape.

After 30 years of trying, U.S. Democratic and Republican take engagement plus containment policy to reach a consensus on U.S. relations with China. In other words, regardless of the current President of the United States is a Democrat or Republican, they are not blindly the a pure contact or curb as China policy. As Henry Kissinger recently put it, the comments on the U.S. presidential candidates debate The American bipartisan differences on any issue, except the China issue or policy toward China is an exception.

The so-called engagement plus containment through strategic friction to shape a different argument. In the international arena, the United States is not afraid opponent, the opponent can help activate its power. In international relations, it would like to see the differences, contradictions and friction between his country, because all of these can become its impact, change and shape his country's means. History has proven over the years, in the absence of the opponent's case, it will find opponents; no differences in the state-to-state relations with other countries, especially its great care, the case of conflict or friction, it will make it all.

This is determined by its strong or the nature of the international police. In the eyes of the police, if the world without incident, not what. Therefore, the international police in the United States, even when dealing with most countries do not want to stir up trouble on Earth, from time to time to stir up trouble or look for a job. Its purpose is to change you, shape you. Table the principle is the same. Party cards are always in a proactive position. With the dealer only in a passive response, unwittingly guide to the direction they would not have to go.

Constantly applied pressure, external pressure prompted China, including the error or own change of direction in favor of the foreign policy-making.

China's rise, especially when the size of China's economy is gradually approaching, as is currently the world boss of the United States, of course, most reluctant to see. However, it can and it seems to be extremely limited. In the case of not resort to full force against it only to pressure to promote change. " This tricks the former Soviet Union who played an excellent efficacy. China's economic and social development needs a peaceful international environment, is not it? Continuous external pressure, and did not reach the war the point, but it is an easy external environment. Internal and external affairs of decision-making under pressure is error-prone.

This seems like the field of the Olympic movement, the face of the eye, and look forward to the pressure, and then good athletes can not fail to be affected! Put pressure on the party, is that the cards of the poker table. If he continuously changing nothing, the cards, with the card party to "attentively" single-minded "stick to their own routines? The beauty of this is the "brand" and "brand" lies.

Determine the intensity and frequency of the cards, in accordance with the priorities.

In general, the intensity and frequency of the U.S. China brand under its domestic political needs as well as global and Asia-Pacific regional strategic agenda, sometimes for the rapid development of China in some ways and some of the domestic and foreign policies initiatives to make the appropriate counter. Front on the one hand, the United States played every card is not China's own sake, in most cases, is a unilateral a conventional action or these cards has long-term value in advancing U.S. strategic interests, which include economic card Most of the content and values ​​of the brand in the three areas.

Chinese idiom: ulterior intention of covering. The United States has frequently make a fuss about the issue of the "exchange rate", "human rights", "religion" or "freedom", in order to obtain benefits on a more practical or more specific economic and political problems. In the next four years, the U.S. government will continue to do so, "seized on the issue," Obama's second term inauguration speech (with emphasis on the value of democracy in the External Relations) first emerged.

In the latter regard, as long as China is in the development of certain aspects (such as defense) as well as some aspects of the policy initiatives in the United States appears to disobedience or may pose a threat to its strategic interests, it will not hesitate to waving its big stick punishment, so back it considers the "right" track.

In his first term, Obama more than once used the big stick - big efforts and high frequency the cards. Especially in the first half of 2010, particularly at night.

In November 2009, Obama's first visit to China. He met with senior Chinese showed a certain degree of soft figure, but did not seem to feel the expected response. Followed on the Copenhagen World Climate Conference in December of the same year, the Chinese side did not marching to the beat of the United States dance. Obama that China really "anti".

So, in the next the first half of 2010, the U.S. Government to China frequently the cards, and its intensity is extremely rare. January 12, the U.S. Internet company Google threatened to exit China; January 21, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Internet freedom speech, accusing China of January 29, the Obama administration notified Congress of plans to sell Taiwan in to strengthen Internet censorship; amounted to $ 6.4 billion worth of weapons; February 18, Obama met with the Dalai Lama at the White House; March 15, 130 U.S. congressmen sent a joint letter called for further pressure on the RMB exchange rate issue; April, the United States high anti-dumping duties levied on Chinese steel pipe.

Why the United States has played in less than half the time, so the intensity of a combination of licensing it? The answer is that they feel the challenge its world leadership role, and they led the international rules of the game.

Given that Obama is the President of the United States in recent decades the most liberal of color in his second term, he will not let in the general case of the United States directly or involved in a military conflict with China. He could not have left Hillary give up has been proved to be not too bad strategy of smart power diplomacy. The so-called smart power, used in relations with China is flexibility in the use of all the resources to deal with China to maintain a high intensity pressure to finally achieve their national interests and strategic objectives.

Therefore, in the next four or future longer, less sunny in Sino-US relations, the more stormy opportunity, especially when China's sustained and rapid economic development, economies of scale approaching the United States The situation is even more so.