Japan's attack on the Chinese method of large inventory!

This topic is not coined himself out of nothing.

The last month LuoYuan first warned to be alert to the Japanese attack. During the Spring Festival, the East China Sea Fleet on high alert, high-profile anti-"attack. Japan also get a vest to match the Onodera issued a statement on North Korea's nuclear test, the first to talk about "pre-emptive" option.

Objectively speaking, the Japanese take the initiative to launch a surprise attack, are subject to multiple factors, such as the Constitution, such as the United States, such as international morality, not to mention its lack of offensive weapons (mainly ammunition). But the resulting Japanese "sneak attack" is a small probability event, can be taken lightly, and it would be wrong. We need to set up a variety of cases analyzed to identify.

- My navy and air force frontline base assault. Possibility index, a star.

Although the East China Sea Fleet to carry out targeted training, but the probability of this attack is essentially zero. No country in the world have the ability to destroy all military potential in a blow. The U.S. through surgery repression, weaken or and partial paralysis military potential, but was retaliation inevitable. Japan this form of attack, it is like an ant trying to topple a giant tree, suicidal. And although Japan has excellent ground attack platforms (fighter), but an insufficient number of narrow range, unlike the United States has a variety of means of attack (especially sea-based cruise missiles). To mention the lack of ground attack munitions, the Air Self-Defense Force is the main task of the United States assigned air defense.

- With the U.S. military to conduct comprehensive pre-emptive blow to me. Possibility index, a star.

The possibility of the U.S. fight against itself very low, unless facing Taiwan. Assuming that because of the Taiwan issue, the United States invited to Japan to implement such a blow to China, Japan, there is good reason to refuse. Japan recently disclosed that allows the discussion may exercise the right of collective self-defense in four cases, in one case, "when the U.S. ship in the attack on the high seas, accompanied by the MSDF ships can fight back. But that said all "self-defense" or "defense". Japanese court disaster will not easily participate in the pre-emptive strike. But if U.S. forces succeed, a foregone conclusion, the outcome had been, and Japan is one hundred percent will be adding insult to injury to get a piece of the action.

- To strike first in the East Sea air confrontation. Possibility index, Award.

This possibility is not the reason, is too much of the uncertainty. Japan has no grasp through pre-emptive made strong? Not sure my navy and air force to cause extensive damage and get out? Even without considering the Second Artillery Corps, facing Japan East China Sea Fleet, with Air Force and naval cover advantages there are geometric it? If you gained nothing, only to drop a laughing stock. This is not to consider the attitudes and world public opinion in the United States. Assuming that China does not fight back at the scene, and Japan flew to international blindsided. That time public opinion in one-sided condemnation of Japan, after China give Japan as retaliation Thunderclap, Japan dry eat Yaba Kui.

- To launch a decapitation. Possibility Index, Samsung.

Skillfully deflected the question, which is of extreme risk-taking behavior. But this most in line with the character of the Japanese want to bet on gambling fortunes. 50% chance of winning in the eyes of the Japanese have been large enough. Where are the 50% chance of winning? Endorsement of the United States is that gambling. Japanese gambling rudderless possibility to launch a nuclear counterattack less than 50%, and even dream in hope that the disturbances in China, the collapse of the American forgive Japan probability higher than 50%! Last year, to take the initiative, kidnapping the United States stress the intent of the United States is very obvious. And the United States face Japan caused the mess made how to react, the sole basis is that the interests of the United States. For Japan, in terms of the problem may on this once and for all solve. Since the last century, Reagan bombing Gaddafi the tent open beheaded precedent, held a grand "Every time I see news were breathless. Too concentrated, full attendance, too scary. Korea very wary this point. We do not believe go check out the news of North Korea know. Japan to complete such action need only one aircraft, two bullets. For Japan, one or two rounds of air-ground attack munitions or cruise missiles secretly developed an easy piece of cake. The guidance is not a problem. Existing aircraft over the high seas on the attack. The future With the F35, even easier.

- Copy "Cheonan" mode. The possibility of the index, a four-star.

"Cheonan" incident did not pull clear. Assuming that the East China Sea also out such an intricate case of a ship or an aircraft with the Road, what impact will it? Japan and the United States are not claimed this terrorist attack. But everyone knows who did it. So Japan will be the national spirit, united, China is the opposite, a heavy setback hardliners, the Chinese Government was under tremendous pressure from civil anger dilemma, the Wong Association army to fight the needle with blood certainly jumped three feet high. These are Japan needs. These needs, there is impulsive. For Japan, even Chang Tso-lin are alone, not to mention a boat or an airplane? Japan stem mind and technical conditions in this matter, no one can be the enemy of the Northeast Asia. In other words, if the Japanese do "Cheonan" incident, more seamless. The Cheonan "the lesson scraped alone. Boat own sea, air and submarine capabilities are extremely limited, and with the lack of air cover and fleet must learn a lesson. It would appear that we are currently utilized sea monitoring cruise, there really is a clever move. Even if there is something wrong, it will not dampen the elan, but inspire the morale; since Japan achieving its purpose, it will not happen any eventuality.

Friends will ask, why do not you given the possibility of a star index? To tell the truth, I look down on small Japan. I am also willing to believe that the state adequately prepared for the attack. Fully prepared to make all attack lost its meaning. But the attack is not an alarmist. The attack in the history of the war, wars too shocking. Defenses cannot do without, this is not unfounded.