After North Korea's nuclear test, the West once again convinced of the futility of pressure on North Korea

North Korea conducted February 12 underground nuclear test caused a political earthquake. U.S., Japan, and South Korea (still not fully departed from the North Korean missile test last December) need to impose new sanctions on Pyongyang. IAEA and NATO also condemned the North Korean "provocation." Apparently, now the opponents of Pyongyang will exert strong pressure on his "lawyers" - Moscow and Beijing, demanding support the introduction of a new package of sanctions in the walls of the Security Council. At first glance, this pressure can bear fruit: the Chinese are extremely dissatisfied with the behavior of Pyongyang and Moscow while in thought. Nothing else can explain the fact that, according to the State Department, Secretary of State SSCHA John Kerry can not get through to the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, committing trip to Africa.

Meanwhile, the introduction of sanctions against North Korea will not solve the problem, but rather a gesture of despair. The history of the last twenty years has shown that sanctions can not stop North Korea's nuclear program. Attempts to rid North Korea of an atom by getting rid of the Kim family and regime change also failed - contrary to some politicians in Seoul and Washington, Kim Jong Un, apparently, was able to consolidate power in his own hands. As a result, today the only real way to reduce the danger coming from Korea, is holding its major internal reforms following the example of China. Impose these reforms from the outside can not be - can only be stimulated.

A third of the Kim

February 12 geological services of various countries reported an artificial earthquake that occurred on North Korean territory, some 400 km from Pyongyang. Its magnitude was about five points, and the epicenter was at a depth of about one kilometer. The same day, the North Korean authorities said that it was their third in a row nuclear tests (first held in 2006 and 2009), and their purpose was to punish the U.S. for its inadequate policies. "Nuclear tests were conducted as part of measures to protect our national security and sovereignty against the reckless U.S. hostility, which violated the right of our country to the peaceful satellite launch", - explained in Pyongyang pledged to take "new steps even larger scale."

In reality, the North Korean nuclear tests were far more pragmatic reasons. First of all, they were the logical consequence conducted missile tests in December, modestly called "satellite launch." "It was not even an intercontinental missile, there remain a number of unresolved technical problems - but it is a serious bid for the establishment of normal ICBM. However, without the rocket warhead does not make sense - said "expert" one of the leading Russian experts on the Korean Peninsula, a professor at Seoul University Kukminskogo Andrei Lankov. - It's not clear exactly what they experienced on February 12, but it's safe to say that the power of the device 7.6 kilotons, which is more than in the tests in 2009. In this case, it is clearly smaller. This probably is not the warhead, but just a prototype. "

Since both test is successful, it can be said that the DPRK is a step closer to a nuclear missile sword (or, according to the North Koreans themselves, shield) - in fact, one of the main goals of the North Korean government for the last half century. "North Korea's somewhere in the 60's slowly but surely going to create a full-fledged nuclear potential. Stalinist command economy (or rather, what is there left of it), maybe it is not very efficient, but the concentration of resources allows great, - said Andrei Lankov. - In five to ten years, they can reach the level of Soviet or American late 50's and get a few more or less reliable ICBM. " And the more successful is the development of these programs, the more likely these enormous costs to the poor state (South Korean intelligence claims that only the nuclear program has taken more than $ 3 billion) to compensate. Not only due to the export of nuclear-missile technology, but also due to blackmail other countries. "From 1996-1997, North Korea's average of about 700,000 tons of free food a year, mainly from the U.S., South Korea, Japan and China. The first three of the country - hostile, who provided food within certain transactions, for the suspension of a nuclear program, "- like Andrei Lankov. The further progress in North Korea's development of this program, the more it will pay for the temporary suspension.

However, the current tests were not just practical - they carried a symbolic meaning. Above all, they were timed to the birthday of Kim Jong Il (which is celebrated on February 16), and thus strengthened the position of his successor Kim Jong-un. Given that Kim Jong Un had just ascended the throne, the abandonment of testing (especially under the enormous pressure of the West) would show its weakness. In addition, current tests can be seen as a farewell to the outgoing slap February 25 South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who led a very tough line against Pyongyang. Finally, it occurred de jure in cadence hostile Lee testing will Kim Jong Ynu start fresh dialogue with the new South Korean President Park Hye Kyn.

Useless sanctions

The North Korean nuclear provocation caused extremely severe reaction to all interested parties. Some of them have already taken appropriate action. However, the effect is likely to be minimal.

Thus, in response to North Korea's test Seoul on February 14-15, held large-scale exercises. In addition, South Korea is preparing a missile response to Pyongyang. In accordance with the agreement signed with the United States in 1979, South Korea was unable to create missiles with a range of over 180 km and weighing more than 500 kg warhead. However, late last year, Lee forced the U.S. to review the agreement, and now, after the nuclear test, South Korea's Defense Ministry has pledged to accelerate "the development of ballistic missiles with a range of 800 kilometers." And while the missiles are not ready, Seoul places along the border with North Korea's conventional cruise missiles. However, according to experts, such actions as are symbolic in some degree a ritual - the new owner of Blue House Kyn Ho Park is set to start a dialogue with the DPRK. Strategy of its predecessor, Lee Myung-bak was not justified, the regime in Pyongyang has survived the procedure of transfer of power - and the South Koreans are well aware that in the event of further deterioration of the situation in the DPRK are the consequences of this deterioration, in contrast to the Americans and the Japanese, will not watch it on TV.

In turn, Japan and the U.S. demand to impose new sanctions on the DPRK. And not just financial. Thus, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for North Korea to include in the list of countries supporting terrorism (Pyongyang was expelled from it in 2008). UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also called on all countries concerned to take a tough stance against North Korea. "The government should not Pyongyang illusion that nuclear weapons in their hands will lead to security ... On the contrary, if Pyongyang has this weapon, it will lead to danger and isolation. This is a direct challenge to the UN Security Council, and it is imperative that the Council acts unanimously and said, "- he said.

However, the proposal Ban Ki-moon and the dreams of the Japanese (imposed in the DPRK unilaterally all possible sanctions, to stop all trade and therefore do not have their own instruments of pressure on Pyongyang) are unlikely to be fulfilled. First of all, because the allies will likely not be able to win the support of Beijing. "The relations between the DPRK and China over the past year have become more complicated. Between the parties on a series of scandals. In recent weeks, the Chinese have clearly put pressure on North Korea, demanding to cancel the nuclear tests. So much so, that the newspaper Global Times (part of the holding "People's Daily", the official voice of the CPC) published an article in which it was written that in the case of North Korea's nuclear test, China will drastically reduce economic aid to Pyongyang. When Pyongyang still made his own way, the Chinese face-saving blamed these tests generally hostile to the U.S. and Japan ", - said Andrei Lankov. However, even with all the humiliation and the problems that come from North Korea, China, in his opinion, is not ready to go to a direct conflict with North Korea and take it to the drastic measures. "For China, a dangerous, nuclear, unpredictable North Korea has a much better option than North Korea, which started the" Korean Spring "or a revolution. Or North Korea, which collapsed and was absorbed by the South. Therefore, the Chinese, resenting and gritting his teeth, continue to support North Korea and subsidize it "- sums Andrei Lankov. And as long as China continues to supply North Korea fuel and food, the sanctions will be useless. Moreover, they will be less pressure on the North Korean regime as to strain relations between the coalition and antiphenyanskoy China. "It is very likely to return Americans to the idea that they have been popular in 2006-2007 - to introduce financial penalties, suggesting that any bank that deals with North Korean money, lose the right to maintain normal correspondent relationships with U.S. banks. But the problem is that these sanctions will damage relations between Washington and Beijing - is now working with the North Koreans is mainly Chinese banks, "- says Andrei Lankov.

Perhaps the consensus and commitment on the issue would have been more if the DPRK has made something extraordinary. However, despite the rhetoric and violent protests, the test bomb was predictable - in fact it was plutonium, not uranium. "In the latter case, the concern would be much more, because the test would prove the existence of the DPRK has sufficient enriched uranium. Since plutonium is more or less clear - we all know that North Korea has 30 to 50 kilograms of plutonium, and thus a new material, it does not (the only North Korean reactor, which can produce plutonium, now does not work) "- explains Andrei Lankov.

Strips space

Since the last twenty years have shown to be ineffective sanctions, the U.S. and its allies need to develop other methods to solve the North Korean missile and nuclear issues. Some experts suggest that to follow the path of negotiations, to which, however, will not be directly DPRK nuclear disarmament. "Instead of talking about a utopian plan denuclearization necessary to negotiate on nuclear arms limitation and monitoring. For example, you can arrange a voluntary moratorium on the North Korean nuclear test and missile launches in exchange for a systematic U.S. assistance. Alternative to the deal - the further development of the North Korean missile and nuclear program and a possible export of equipment and technology to third countries ", - said Andrei Lankov.

This path can really reduce the tension, but is unlikely to solve the problem itself. Taking help from the U.S. and the West, North Korea at any time can disrupt comply with the requirement and to lift the moratorium. Rather, the beginning of the negotiations and the warming of relations will create the background for a much more effective solution to the problem - promoting internal change in North Korea itself, which will make it more open, and therefore more dependent on the outside world. In this case, it is not about regime change, which said Lee and Washington "hawks" and its modernization. The benefit of the new head of the DPRK Kim Jong-un, appears ready to carry it out.

Actually, the first approach to the projectile, he has already done. "In the last days of June in North Korea were announced quite radical reform. In particular, the farmers promised to leave about 30 percent of the crop. In addition, the site of a large field team had to come small team - that is actually a family. In an industry such as going to introduce self-financing. There were ideological concessions. So, favorite palace complex, Kim Jong-un - the group "Moranbong" - performed at the concert with a medley of American popular music, which is the old North Korean standards, was considered depraved, decadent and immoral (on stage were actors dressed as Mickey Mouse, Minnie Mouse, Winnie the Pooh. - "Expert"). In addition, Kim Jong-un began to walk everywhere with his young and beautiful wife, - said Andrei Lankov. - However, this period lasted only about three months. In mid-September the peasants declared that reforms are premature. In industry seminars on the new control system canceled without explanation. Wife, Kim Jong-un is seen in public only once a month. A girl from the group "Moranbong" again singing love songs to the leader and the party - without it Mickey Mouse. "

It is still not clear why the reforms were stopped. Clear answer, none of the experts do not - because "we are talking about a very closed society. This is not Moscow in 1969, where the CC instructors communicate with their brothers - dissident professors who passed on information to U.S. journalists and British spies. North Korea's top leadership is extremely close ", - says Lankov.

There is a theory that Kim Jong Un encountered the opposition of the North Korean elite, who believe that the path of reforms (even gently) lead the DPRK to the fate of the East Germany. And if this version is true, then it is possible that the approach to the projectile, Kim Jong Un will repeat - once to get rid of all those who interfere with him. Actually, the process of redemption has begun. "In mid-2012, was the largest in the last half-century cleaning in the North Korean army. Of the four senior North Korean military that followed the coffin of Kim Jong Il's three (Chief of Staff, and. About. Minister of State Security and and. About. Chief of the Political Department of the armed forces) in the last year have disappeared without a trace. A fourth - now former first deputy defense minister Kim Yong Chun - was transferred to the symbolic post of head of the civil defense. Was removed from the position of much of the regional commanders and senior officers, and in their place or transferred officers lowest level, or professional Party workers, who immediately gave the rank of general, "- said Andrei Lankov. In general, according to some, was ousted and 10% of the commanders of the North Korean army. Apparently, Kim Jong Un has decided not to rely on the military (as did his father), and the Party bureaucrats - for example, Kim Il Sung. And they are usually much more susceptible to the wind of change than the generals.