China desperate but also to protect the truth of Iran

Malacca dilemma

Chinese strategists have a deep fear of Malacca dilemma. This fear prompted policy makers despite the complexity of the situation in Myanmar, the construction of a Sino-Myanmar oil pipeline to avoid the Strait of Malacca.

These concerns can be Corinth realistic analysis defuse. Investigated a large number of international oil trading and shipping market, he believes, the attributes of the international oil trade commodities to market is huge, highly market-oriented oil makes international transactions is very flexible, making the United States impossible and did not have the strength to cut off China's energy lifeline.

The Strait of Malacca, for example, the day after the tanker roughly 50, carrying about 1170 barrels of oil. If the U.S. Navy blockade of China, must determine which oil tankers bound for China. But China's imported oil only 10% of the capacity of the Chinese nationality transport by vessels, so that the United States must identify and intercept the other 90% of the vessels from the port of loading and port of destination, the oil may have on these vessels reselling changed hands more than 30 times . This flexibility allows oil trade to the United States can not be screened these oil eventually flows into China port.

In fact, if you really want such a big way to "contain China" not only would be subjected to international criticism, the global oil market will make a huge fluctuations, resulting more complex and serious global problem ... ...

In the analysis of a wide range of possibilities, of Corinth, the subsequent impact of much practical problem and uncontrollable, the United States of China's oil security line "containment" will always be an exercise in futility. If the characteristics of the international oil market can exclude this hidden, the Chinese still need to worry about a changing factors - Iran.

China is worried that the United States in the important shipping node intercept China's energy lifeline, while Iran in the oil source of China's energy security have a profound impact. Iran's nuclear dispute may at any time for China to bring the "oil crisis".

Iranian oil

Iranian oil

Iran and the oil crisis. "

In reality, China and Iran, the two countries have friendly diplomatic relations and close oil trade. If we say that Iran is the threat of China's offshore oil safety line, because only the Strait of Hormuz.

This glyph Strait is the only outlet to the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, about 150 kilometers from east to west, almost all Iranian Homeland hug. Because this geographic advantage, the commander of the Iranian Navy, before facing the U.S. oil embargo punishment lightly blockade the Strait of Hormuz than a cup of water is also easy. This self-confidence from the Strait of geographical features, because the Strait narrowest point is only less than 39 kilometers, and can be done even with an ordinary artillery fire coverage, an average depth of 70 meters, ideal environment deploy mines waters.

Therefore, the Strait of Hormuz, Iran easily as a tool of the international political game.

In 1984, the Iran-Iraq war in the burning flames of war to the Persian Gulf sea. In order to force Iran to the cease-fire, Iraq began attacking Iranian tanker in the Persian Gulf waters, Iran begins to attack any merchant ships bound for Iraq, and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. Iranian F-4E fighter-bombers attacked the 8 million tons of the Kuwaiti tanker 乌姆卡巴西 "in the May 13, 1984, when the ship is loaded with gasoline being shipped to the UK left the Saudi port. The attack also opened the prelude to the Iran-Iraq war directly attack neutrals merchant. To the end of the Iran-Iraq war, Iran has attacked 31 countries, a total of more than 190 merchant ships, 63 crew members were killed, is in the infancy of the world's second oil crisis intensified this aimless free to attack the blockade.

At that time, China was just opening its doors, the self-sufficient economies just to catch the pulse of the global economy, yet it feel less than the global oil crisis impact. Nearly 40 years later, China has become the world's second-largest economy, but also become a net importer of oil. Component of the Persian Gulf into the territory of foreign oil imports in China is becoming more and more weight. At present, the Middle East oil has more than 40% of China's total oil imports, 22.4 percent of the total oil consumption.

The IEA oil crisis defined: If a country's oil supply is reduced by 7%, the country is caught up in the oil crisis. Iran to take risks, to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese apparently suffered a severe oil crisis.

China is Iran's biggest oil-importing countries, accounting for 22 percent of Iran's total exports, the two sides have a material interest dependencies. But the good bilateral relations and avoid damage to China's oil transport line.

Once Iran announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, it has no room for maneuver, if China spared blockade effect is weakened? This is an Iranian issue to consider. Moreover, even if Iran decided on China spared, will face the same predicament with the United States in the Collins Professor analysis: can not tell which tankers are traveling to China.

While cruising in the Strait of Hormuz manned weapons platform able to identify the Chinese nationality tankers or oil tankers bound for China the third country, deployed in the Strait waterway mines do not have this ability. May 16, 1987, when relations between the Soviet Union and Iran is very ambiguous, but 68,000 tons of Soviet tanker Marshal Zhukov, "(Minaal-Ah-madi), Minas Ahmad Di waterways must pass through into Kuwait unfortunate enough to be injured by mines laid by Iran. This incident caused a diplomatic conflict between the two countries.

During the Iran-Iraq war, the response of the parties confirm this

During the Iran-Iraq war, the response of the parties confirm this

Deployment of mines in the waterway will be a threat to the allies, but Iran may not be in a crisis to give up, because to do so is not only the most cost also can produce the best effect of the blockade. Mines may not be able to cause huge casualties international vessels sailing in the waters, but it can be caused by psychological shock and awe and deterrent effectiveness for maximum performance.

During the Iran-Iraq war, the response of the parties to confirm this.

In this context, both China and Iran, there is a kind of friendly relations, if Iran chooses to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, and that not only means that China's oil imports from the other countries in the Persian Gulf would be restricted, but also due to a third party may military action, can not continue to import oil from Iran. At that time, the "oil crisis" will inevitably come.

More people worried that the Iranian nuclear dispute seems to have step-by-step upgrade.

Forced into a corner, "the Iranian nuclear issue."

The biggest controversy in the Middle East is the Iranian nuclear issue.

Realist political scientist Hans Morgenthau disputes between countries into three categories. The first category is "mere dispute, the dispute itself will not cause tension between the two sides; second category is" tense relations between the countries part of the dispute, that dispute is just the tip of the iceberg of the conflict between the countries; The third category is the "National tensions between representative or symbolic dispute, that dispute is the the tight convergence point of the overall relationship between the two countries, despite the possibility of the appearance of both conflicts and disputes, but it has iconic and core.

Both history and reality-based look at the Iranian nuclear crisis between the two countries in the US-Iraq basically belong to the third category of disputes.

From the historical point of view, for the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran since its establishment, the United States has not accepted this regime with religious overtones, always seeking to promote the fall of the Iranian regime. Prevent subversion and invasion of the United States is the core interests of the Iranian regime, so the goal is to force American ideology and its military, political and economic impact of exit in the Middle East.

China's oil transport line

The contradiction between the country into deadly antagonists in this conflict, the Iranian nuclear issue between the two countries most directly and most iconic.

Nuclear retaliatory capability in the military, Iran's defense last line of defense. Conventional military power can not meet the requirements of the defense, nuclear weapons, Iran is the most reasonable and most realistic choice. Equal to defuse once Iran has nuclear weapons, the U.S. military deterrence in the Middle East, weaken the influence of the United States (DPRK mode sense stimulation with Iran on the nuclear issue further and further away). Political, domestic nuclear activities, particularly uranium enrichment activities (concentration of 20%), the rights of a normal country. If the United States agrees that Iran engaged in uranium enrichment activities in their territories, which means that the United States recognizes Iran's right to enjoy a normal country, while denying the right, on the existence of hostility against Iran means that the U.S., Iran also necessary to develop nuclear weapons.

For this, involved in the Iranian nuclear issue long-term former Chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohamed ElBaradei, very clear. He believes that the so-called Iranian nuclear issue is not a fundamental problem, it is just a symbol of the United States and Iran dispute.

For the United States, Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will not only undermine the conventional military influence of the United States in the Middle East, even more frightening is the subsequent reaction of uncontrollable series of neighboring countries. In early 2012, U.S. President Barack Obama in an exclusive interview with the Atlantic Monthly clear that: "The Middle East is a volatile region, many countries can not tolerate a nuclear Iran, which does not. Iranian support for terrorism, nuclear very serious danger of proliferation of once Iran's possession of nuclear weapons, other countries in the Middle East is likely to follow suit. too dangerous. "

In the interview, Obama simplifies the choice of the United States: either Iran abandon its nuclear program, either the United States to wage war. In the United States has clearly defined its own bottom line, the rest of the Iranian reaction. With Iran on the issue of nuclear enrichment continues to adhere to, the room for maneuver between the two sides are getting smaller and smaller. Iran's nuclear issue will be the final or the fuse to ignite war in the Strait of Hormuz.

Even more worrying is that the rehabilitative an oil embargo sanctions since Iran into a corner. Optimistic estimates, the new sanctions on Iran's oil revenues will be reduced by 50% in 2012. Iranian oil industry contributed 70% of government revenue, which means a huge blow. The anti-American stance in Iranian folk momentum is growing, which also makes the proposition to ease the contradiction reformist activity space is getting smaller and smaller. Who also can not guarantee that Iran's internal political contradictions do not always evolve into a diplomatic gamble.

By then, China will face the bottleneck of the source of foreign oil imports, international oil prices will fly overhead in the Persian Gulf war. Even nowadays by Israel against Hamas, the use of force, has led to rapidly rising international oil prices (Israel's tough stance on the Iran nuclear issue, but also one of the factors of instability). If this happens, China will face a stern "oil crisis".

All of this makes the Iran crisis from too close.