North Korean nuclear test and admitted: protected by Chinese regional hegemony

On February 12, the implementation of the nuclear test in North Korea. As I wrote in a previous post, China is North Korea imposed pressure that no further nuclear tests. Once the default North Korea's nuclear test, the United States sent in coordination weakened the military industrial complex will become strong, to lead to a new Cold War-style encirclement of China's long-lasting. Therefore, the official newspaper of the Communist Party of China - People's Daily's newspaper Global Times (English), published in North Korea conducted nuclear tests, to be the threat of sanctions article that China on North Korea's nuclear test have dissatisfaction. North Korea nuclear test, China's Foreign Ministry summoned the North Korean ambassador to Beijing, was condemned.

The United States has no way to stop North Korea's nuclear test, if the military attack on North Korea, it will become the United States in the war. The five nuclear powers (the United Nations Security Council permanent members), not war, "military option" is just lip service only. U.S., Europe and Japan have been cut off economic relations with North Korea, even if the strengthening of economic sanctions, also have little effect, have the ability to stop North Korea's nuclear development only to China. But you really want to stop North Korea is uncertain. In addition, even if the Chinese really want to stop, whether North Korea can ignore, not sure. Before the nuclear test, North Korea, China applied pressure, but North Korea despite China's opposition to still carry out a nuclear test.

China failed to stop North Korea's nuclear test, or can block but did not stop. But the North Korean nuclear test, China's international stance occurred significant changes. Prior to this, led the international community to prevent North Korea repeated nuclear tests and rocket (satellite) United States. Affects the reins of North Korea since the United States broke off diplomatic relations with North Korea did not affects the reins of North Korea in 2003 to build the framework of the six-party talks, to go to the Chinese hands, but even so, the United States still retain a leading role.

But the United Nations Security Council, the United States, Japan and other media are emphasized: "to prevent North Korea's nuclear test, only China," China should further North Korea to put pressure "," China is now considering how to respond to North Korea's nuclear test . ". North Korea is actively recognized under Chinese protection in China's regional hegemony.

North Korea more than 90% of the crude oil, imported from China, as long as the Chinese stop the export of crude oil to North Korea, North Korea's economy will be paralyzed, China holds the reins of North Korea. American scholars have pointed out: "China can stop North Korea's nuclear development, but did not stop.

But, if it is a long time to stop the export of crude oil to North Korea, would make the fragile North Korea economic verge of collapse, economic refugees (migrant workers) will be swarmed across the border of China, there will be a bad phenomenon. Rely on to build a military-led regime (military-first politics) in North Korea, the Soviet Union collapsed, losing the necessary economic assistance in the 1990s, barely able to survive. At that time, the Clinton administration in the United States had tried to sign a framework agreement on the nuclear issue with North Korea, to provide economic assistance to North Korea while releasing the economy, but the slightest tough, not accept North Korea secretly on the international black market the sale of weapons, anesthetic, counterfeit money, live frugally. Just fit with the US-South Korea military-led military-first regime, hostile.

911 in 2001 after the United States broke off diplomatic relations with North Korea in favor of the implementation of the hostile policy during this period, China to induce North Korea's Kim Jong-il, the gradual introduction of Chinese-style economic system, led by the Department of General designed for economy-led, trying to This resolve tensions between North Korea and the Korean Peninsula. Late last year, Kim Jong-il's death, Kim Jong-un office, Jang, Kim Kyung-hee (Kim Jong-il's sister) and his wife regent, in charge of economic policy, through one after another change of the Tam FORCES political military cadres, the strategy is beginning to achieve.

China's long-term economic, sanctions against North Korea will hinder North Korea, led by the army into the Chinese preference priority to the development trend of the economy. North Korea is just the name of the banner of self-reliance (Juche), strong self-esteem in the international community is extremely annoying to others as: "obedience" or "the introduction of the Chinese policy of". China has been trying to apply mild pressure on North Korea. In the 1990s, the United States has struggled with the same way to penetrate into the economy of North Korea. It was pointed out that, even if China has criticized North Korea to stop the export of crude oil, it is limited to a few days without a negative impact to the economy of North Korea.

U.S. and South Korea and other analysts said: "China intends to their North Korean collapse, the merger was South Korea, U.S. military approximation to the territory than the default that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, to maintain the North Korean regime." This is a specious argument, but on the other hand, now, in fact, in the six-party talks in 2003, led talks since the United States to suppress is to promote the coordination of North-South relations to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and create allows environment in the financial plight of the United States withdraw its troops from South Korea, the idea to drive out U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula.

The United States itself, the Bush administration's Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has made it clear that: "The six-party talks into North Korea after the abolition of nuclear (instead of the US-South Korea military alliance), East Asia, a new common security system.", The Obama administration will inherit the idea ( The Obama administration is not a statement on North Korea's diplomatic strategy). The economic development of China, and its buffer zone to maintain instability, it is better to maintain stable relations with the United States and a close neighbor of the situation. North Korea's nuclear weapons undermine relations with the United States and close neighbor of the situation.

Trying to reborn from the major economic powers of East Asia overlord, is inclined to the Korean Peninsula (South Korea and North Korea) as its sphere of influence. During the Cold War, the United States and Britain and other attempts to disrupt communist China, hostility, interfere with the adjacent countries and China, North Korea, Laos, Myanmar, China had to include these countries under the umbrella, but after the Cold War, the potential impact of this. Cold War, passively North Korea as a buffer zone not attack pay attention now in a multipolar world, as the overlord of East Asia, is the initiative to influence North Korea and South Korea. Xi Jinping, this trend could be stronger than Hu Jintao.

After the failure of the Iraq war, U.S. hegemony crumbling while South Korea's Lee Myung-bak government by strengthening hostility toward North Korea, exacerbate the North-South tensions, maintain subordination to the United States, trying to continue in some way dependent on the U.S. hegemony. 10 spring Cheonan sank is an event of great symbolic significance, even if North Korea did not do, South Korea also said North Korea has done, in order to exacerbate the deterioration of relations between the South and the North. The Cheonan incident occurs waters China in front of the Yellow Sea, after the incident, the US-South Korea military exercises, the U.S. aircraft carrier into the Yellow Sea, the US-ROK alliance cast encirclement of China's color. Since then, China has gradually set 1, 2 archipelago lines and spheres of influence.

At this point, I have analyzed China's stance, but North Korea's stance? North Korea should abandon its military-first politics, but why to conduct nuclear tests? Some people think: "dissatisfied with the government to ease the hostile relations between the U.S. and South Korea in North Korea could lead to the collapse of the regime, and therefore can not ease the tension even if the implementation of the US-South Korean reconciliation policy, North Korea will pretend not to reconciliation, maintain hostile.

But on the other hand, North Korea in recent years, would like to be along the Sino-Russian border Luo first and Sinuiju along the Chinese border, turned into industrial parks, to recruit U.S. and European companies. Only enterprise in China and South Korea and North Korea to maintain the status quo, vulnerable to pressure from China and South Korea because of North Korea, the North Korean government wants to develop a variety of international economic relations. Therefore, the League of Nations economic sanctions must be lifted. Conducted a nuclear test, North Korea does not match the economic strategy.

FT newspaper said, the United States and Europe and other North Korea experts predict that: "after North Korea conducted a nuclear test would impose diplomatic offensive in the United States, South Korea, the United States and North Korea, and the North-South summit talks, trying to make the lifting of economic sanctions." The United States and North Korea, the North-South dialogue cut off for several years, North Korea is now eager to resume their dialogue again is very difficult. But, if North Korea plans to launch a diplomatic offensive, favor negotiations, so prior to the conduct of nuclear tests and rocket launchers, and just want to show to the world that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons to attack the United States. If the diplomatic offensive launched after the nuclear test, and Kim Jong-un will not attach importance to economic policy contradictions (North Korea is not common sense out the card). We can only see what happens, or what had happened.